Abstract: The COVID-19 epidemic broke out at the end of 2019 and developed into a global infectious disease in early 2020. In order to understand the spreading trend of the epidemic, we propose an enhanced epidemiology predictive model—eSEIR model by improving the well-mixed SEIR model on the infectious disease dynamics. The eSEIR model incorporates an optimization method to calculate β and γ parameters. Our proposed model is verified using the epidemic data in Italy and China with reduced RMSE (root mean square error) of the predicted curves, and is...
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Topics: 
Statistics
Econometrics