Abstract: ABSTRACTCOVID-19 is now widely spreading around the world as a global pandemic. In this report, we estimate the global tendency of COVID-19 and analyze the associated global epidemic risk, given that the status quo is continued without further measures being taken.The results show that the global R0, excluding China, is estimated to be 2.49 (95% CI: 2.15 – 2.92). The United States, Germany, Italy and Spain have peak values over 100,000. According to dynamical model and cluster analysis, we category the globe into four type regional epicenters...
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Topics: 
Demography
Socioeconomics