Abstract: In March 2020, Coronavirus Disease 2019 originating from Wuhan, China, has become pandemic. Based on epidemic data from China we constructed and constrained a simple Susceptible–Infected– Infectious–Excluded (SIIE) model. The model is characterized by only three parameters: average incubation period, contact rate rC, and exclusion rate rE. These two rates control the daily multiplication coefficient β describing epidemic growth in its early exponential phase, during which the number of excluded (confirmed) individuals grows as E = E0 exp...
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Topics: 
Demography
Statistics
Econometrics