2021 •
Superspreading quantified from bursty epidemic trajectories
Authors:
Julius B. Kirkegaard, Kim Sneppen
Abstract:AbstractThe quantification of spreading heterogeneity in the COVID-19 epidemic is crucial as it affects the choice of efficient mitigating strategies irrespective of whether its origin is biological or social. We present a method to deduce temporal and individual variations in the basic reproduction number directly from epidemic trajectories at a community level. Using epidemic data from the 98 districts in Denmark we estimate an overdispersion factor k for COVID-19 to be about 0.11 (9 (...) AbstractThe quantification of spreading heterogeneity in the COVID-19 epidemic is crucial as it affects the choice of efficient mitigating strategies irrespective of whether its origin is biological or social. We present a method to deduce temporal and individual variations in the basic reproduction number directly from epidemic trajectories at a community level. Using epidemic data from the 98 districts in Denmark we estimate an overdispersion factor k for COVID-19 to be about 0.11 (95% confidence interval 0.08–0.18), implying that 10 % of the infected cause between 70 % and 87 % of all infections.(Read More)
We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website and the services we offer better. By using this site, you agree to the use of cookies. Learn more