2019 •
Projections of epidemic transmission and estimation of vaccination impact during an ongoing Ebola virus disease outbreak in Northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo, as of Feb. 25, 2019
Authors:
Lee Worden, Rae Wannier, Nicole A. Hoff, Kamy Musene, Bernice Selo, Mathias Mossoko, Emile Okitolonda-Wemakoy, Jean Jacques Muyembe Tamfum, George W. Rutherford, Thomas M. Lietman, Anne W. Rimoin, Travis C. Porco, J. Daniel Kelly
Abstract:
Author summary As of February 25, 2019, 875 cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) were reported in North Kivu and Ituri Provinces, Democratic Republic of Congo. Since the beginning of October 2018, the outbreak has largely shifted into regions in which active armed conflict has been reported, and in which EVD cases and their contacts have been difficult for health workers to reach. We used an ensemble of models to estimate EVD transmission rates and to forecast the short- and long-term course of the outbreak. Our models project that a final size o (...)
Author summary As of February 25, 2019, 875 cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) were reported in North Kivu and Ituri Provinces, Democratic Republic of Congo. Since the beginning of October 2018, the outbreak has largely shifted into regions in which active armed conflict has been reported, and in which EVD cases and their contacts have been difficult for health workers to reach. We used an ensemble of models to estimate EVD transmission rates and to forecast the short- and long-term course of the outbreak. Our models project that a final size of roughly up to 300 additional cases is most likely, and estimate that transmission rates are higher than would be seen under optimal levels of contact tracing and vaccination. While a catastrophic outbreak is not projected, is it not ruled out, and prevention and vigilance are warranted. (Read More)
Lee Worden, Rae Wannier, Nicole A. Hoff, Kamy Musene, Bernice Selo, Mathias Mossoko, Emile Okitolond (...)
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases ·
2019
Demography |
Statistics |
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